Lately, I’ve been noticing that I tend to overestimate my chances whenever I’m making decisions under uncertainty, especially when outcomes seem familiar or recently successful. How do cognitive biases actually manipulate our judgment, and are there practical ways to recognize when I’m being misled by my own mind?
Cognitive biases work like hidden filters in your thinking—they nudge you toward conclusions that feel right, but aren’t necessarily accurate. For example, recency bias makes you overweight recent experiences, while confirmation bias makes you focus on information that supports what you already believe. Being aware of these tendencies is the first step, and tracking your own decisions critically can help. If you want a deeper look at how such biases specifically impact our decisions, including in betting scenarios, I found this article on https://technicalalamin.com/how-cognitive-biases-influence-your-betting-decisions/ really insightful—it breaks down examples and offers practical advice for spotting your own blind spots.
Understanding how memory, habits, and social influence affect everyday choices can help anyone make more rational decisions without being trapped by automatic mental shortcuts.